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Latest Post September 22, 2017

Oil market traded in and out of positive territory on conflicting signals regarding OPEC output cut agreement

Recap: On its first trading session as the spot contract, the November crude futures retraced some of its previous gains.  The market posted a low of $50.07 in overnight trading before it bounced off its low and rallied to a high of $50.81 by mid-day.  The market traded in and out of positive territory on conflicting signals from OPEC ministers about whether an extension of its current output cut agreement is on the table for Friday’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting.  While Kuwait’s Oil Minister stated that the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition was not ready to discuss an extension, Algeria’s Oil Minister said an extension would be discussed at the meeting.  The November crude contract settled down 14 cents at $50.55 while the November Brent contract settled up 14 cents at $56.43.  The product markets ended mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 83 points at $1.8153 and the RBOB market settling down 1.13 cents at $1.6438.   

Fundamental News: Genscape reported that crude stocks held in Cushing, Oklahoma in the week ending Tuesday, September 19th increased by 462,063 barrels on the week and by 375,407 barrels from Friday, September 15th to 62,378,207 barrels. 

Kuwait’s Oil Minister, Essam Al-Marzouq, said that compliance with the OPEC-led oil output cuts was very good and above 100%.  He also stated that the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition was not ready to discuss an extension of the deal, which currently calls for producers to reduce their output by 1.8 million bpd until March 2018.  The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which Kuwait’s Oil Minister chairs, is scheduled to discuss compliance and review market conditions on Friday.  Separately, an OPEC delegate said no common position has emerged on how long any extension of the supply cuts should last.   

Algeria’s Energy Minister, Mustapha Guitoni said OPEC would discuss extending the deal with non-OPEC producers. 

Russia’s Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said OPEC and non-OPEC countries will discuss a monitoring procedure for oil exports at a meeting in Vienna. 

Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, said the nuclear deal between the Iran and the six world powers is good and cannot be renegotiated.  US President, Donald Trump, called the deal an embarrassment during his first speech at the UN on Tuesday. 

Germany’s Foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel, said any US move to abandon the Iranian nuclear deal would discourage other powers such as North Korea from negotiating an end to their own nuclear program. 

According to Euroilstock, European refining crude intake in August fell by 1.7% on the month and by 2% on the year to 10.557 million bpd.  Europe’s refinery output in August fell by 1.3% on the month and by 0.8% on the year to 11.153 million bpd.  It reported that European gasoline output increased by 0.9% on the month but fell by 3% on the year to 2.49 million bpd while its middle distillates output fell by 2.2% on the month and by 3.2% on the year to 5.652 million bpd.

Gasoline stocks independently held in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp terminal in the week ending September 21st fell by 2.16% on the week but increased by 14.47% on the year to 815,000 tons.  Gasoil stocks fell by 1.71% on the week and by 18.28% on the year to 2.589 million tons. 

Early Market Call - as of 9:30 AM EDT

WTI - Nov  $50.50, down 5 cents

RBOB - Oct $1.6588, up 1.51 cents

HO -Oct $1.8152, down 7 cents 

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